“Fantasy figures” row as boom claims clash with high street reality

While the Chancellor is cock-a-hoop about the UK’s growth figures for the first quarter of 2026, sceptics are talking about the possibility the statistics might be peddling an overly optimistic line.

Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki on Unsplash

The figures out this morning from the Office for National Statistics shows that the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year. That wasn’t what the forecasters expected. So far that could be taken as good news. However, growth in March is reported to have been 0.3%. March was the first full month of the Middle East conflict, and everyone expected that oil prices and costs of fuel at the pumps would have brought any growth to a standstill and possibly the economy would have gone into reverse. 0.3% in March is even less believable that 0.6% for the quarter.

If the figures are right, then the news is good, but unlikely to last. The reality will hit in the second quarter. First quarter figures could be revised. Consumers and businesses are likely to have spent money in March to avoid having to pay more later if the war continues. Stocking up on fuel and buying electric vehicles seem to have been responsible for some of the better-than-expected figures.

Some economists are also wondering about the accuracy of the stats. Economic data according to them, has been showing strong growth early in the year since 2022, and weaker growth later and they’re wondering whether the ONS has been getting it’s figures in a bit of a twist.

However, the anecdotal evidence from small and micro businesses paints a different picture. On the ground, where it really matters, business owners are reporting fewer customers with less money to spend, cutting back on outings and any little luxuries, looking for cheaper options, delaying big item shopping, and reducing any non-essential spending.

The real and serious problem with stats is that they aren’t reflecting where we are now, six weeks on from the end of March and the first quarter of 2026, and they rarely take into account the vitally important information that could be gleaned from the micro businesses. We make all sorts of decisions based on the growth statistics such as whether or not to invest or recruit, buy new equipment or open a new shop, and it needs to be fully inclusive, accurate and up to date. Until that’s the case and we can trust the figures we have to believe what we see. What we see are struggling businesses shutting up shop. That’s not a signal of growth of any kind.