Iran war shock to cost UK 163,000 jobs

The economic fallout from the Iran conflict is set to ripple across the UK, with forecasts warning of up to 163,000 job losses this year. Surging energy costs and supply disruption are hitting manufacturing regions first, while households nationwide are tightening spending, putting further pressure on already fragile retail and hospitality sectors.

The UK’s cost of the Iran war

The war in Iran is forecast to cost the UK economy 163,000 jobs this year.

With the conflict in the Middle East still trundling on and no end in sight, oil prices are continuing to oscillate wildly and the latest regional outlook from the Item Club, and economic forecasting group, shows the UK economy is expected to lose jobs this year with some regions harder hit than others.

energy crisis

Lower income regions such as South Wales and the Humber will feel the impact more than others. Both areas are heavily reliant on manufacturing and construction industries, which are more likely to feel the effects of the higher energy costs and disruption to supplies. The figures show nearly 6,000 jogs going in South Wales and nearly 3,000 in the Humber. That’s not just jobs lost but families hit be seriously reduced incomes.

However, the damage isn’t confined to South Wales and the Humber. The energy shock is hitting households across the country, and they are being forced to cut back on discretionary spending as the cost-of-living soars again.

The retail and hospitality sectors, which are already under siege are facing the loss of 25,000 in London, 12,500 in Birmingham, 9,800 in Leeds and 6,200 in Glasgow. Business sectors that are highly dependent on energy are doubly affected, by their own rising bills and by a dearth of customers with any savings left to spend.

This forecast won’t do much for the Government’s ambitions to bring down the bill for welfare benefits nor is it ideal for local councils and newly elected councillors who want to improve the lives of the people in their wards.